Peter Dutton's scorched Earth gambit
I regret to inform you that the climate wars are still raging. They always have been.
I want to take a moment to acknowledge the developments in the Australian climate policy debate over the last 48 hours.
In case you somehow missed it, Peter Dutton has made clear that he would oppose Australia’s current 2030 emissions reduction target - to reduce emissions by 43 per cent from 2005 levels - and insinuated that he could withdraw Australia from the Paris Agreement altogether.
Such was the unexpected fervency of Dutton’s latest intervention that several members of the Liberal party caucus were left pondering whether they had, in fact, missed a party room meeting.
It has dissolved any fleeting sense that Australia’s climate policy landscape had achieved a level of stability and confirmed that yet another federal election is set to be fought over Australia’s response to the most substantial environmental, economic and social challenge the world faces.
I think it’s worth acknowledging that for anyone who has been engaged in the ‘climate space’ - whether from an activist, political, business or just general interest viewpoint - that these latest developments are frustrating, tedious and tiresome.
The cloud of toxic policy uncertainty that has yet again been generated, less than a year out from the next federal election, is fatal to business confidence and the ability for anyone to invest in the opportunities being created in the transition to a lower emissions economy.
Reflecting the pain that yet another re-litigation of Australian climate policy would bring to the business sector, the Australian Energy Council, the Business Council of Australia and the Australian Industry Group have already issued unified statements calling for Dutton to not abandon the existing 2030 emissions target.
War is Peace
Many in the media have been quick to label Dutton’s interventions as a re-ignition of Australia’s decade long ‘climate wars’.
The sad reality is that the war never ended. I don’t think it ever will, and it certainly was never going to be the case that climate minister Chris Bowen, or the broader Albanese Government, would be able to unilaterally declare that the climate wars were over.
It takes two sides to declare peace, and unfortunately for Australia, one of the key antagonists of the ‘climate wars’ is imbued with a group of climate change deniers and conspiracy theorists for whom Total War is their only mode.
With Barnaby Joyce declaring wind farms - including those that bring investment and jobs into his own electorate - as ‘industrial dumps’, while at the same time shadow climate minister Ted O’Brien is promising to bring the joys of nuclear power to an electorate that may or may not be near you - it was only a matter of time before Peter Dutton strayed back into the climate battlefield.
Dutton’s rejection of Australia’s current 43 per cent emissions reduction target, and his refusal to reveal his alternate 2030 target before the next election, are an effective admission that nuclear power will not make a meaningful contribution to Australia’s energy mix any time soon.
As Giles Parkinson writes in RenewEconomy, “the push for nuclear power in Australia has long been directly linked with climate denial.”
Wrecking balls
Ever since Tony Abbott seized the prime ministership on the back of his ‘axe the tax’ campaign against the Gillard government’s carbon price, climate policy has not been a good-faith policy debate. Rather opposition to climate policy has been embraced as a campaigning tactic that the conservative side of politics views as a legitimate path to forming government.
I’m not certain that Peter Dutton, and his broader opposition front bench, consider the results of the 2022 election - where the Morrison government’s poor climate policies contributed to the loss of almost a dozen ‘moderate’ metropolitan Liberal seats to Teal independents - as a rebuke of their climate opposition stance.
The 2022 result demonstrated that climate policy remains a fruitful means of turning votes - in whichever direction - and now combined with an Australian electorate that is now generally struggling with cost of living pressures and the impact of inflation, renewable energy and climate targets are ripe targets to be scapegoated by a Dutton led Coalition.
The lack of recent progress in reducing Australia’s emissions - which have remained essentially flat for the last four years - and stubbornly high electricity prices make it difficult for the current Labor government to point to positive progress being achieved in Australia’s energy transition.
No doubt Labor has introduced some solid foundations for a future Australian economy to seize the positive opportunities created by a global decarbonisation in the long term. But progress in the immediate short term has been insufficient, and has allowed the Coalition to argue that investment in green industry has been wasteful.
The broader politick
Dutton will also be buoyed by his ‘victory’ in the Voice to Parliament referendum, having successfully engaged as a wrecker against what was a fairly modest proposal from Australia’s First Nations community.
Dutton will feel confident that he doesn’t need to make logical arguments, or adopt energy policies informed by technical expertise. Dutton expects that seeding doubt and throwing blame at others will be enough to win over concerned, confused, but otherwise well-meaning voters who may not be as engaged in the climate policy debate as you, me and anyone else reading this article.
Dutton’s approach is a gamble on being able to chart a path to government by winning over voters in outer suburban electorates where voters are doing it particularly tough - taking seats like Gilmore, Bennelong and Parramatta off Labor - rather than taking the challenge to the Teals.
Additionally, Dutton may be counting on a successful Trump presidential bid - with the next US Presidential election likely to occur just months before the next Australian Federal election. The re-emergence of Donald Trump presidency and a repeat of his hostility towards international climate agreements will provide some level of cover for Dutton’s own antagonism towards Australia’s 2030 target and the Paris Agreement.
A final comment
It’s okay to feel wearied by the latest conflagration of Australian climate policy.
I know I am.
I know there will be some who will say we can’t afford to be tired. That we don’t have time to feel exhausted.
But, as someone who has been engaged in the climate policy space professionally for the last 16 years (almost half my life), it’s okay to feel fatigued by the seemingly endless and repetitive struggle that is climate action. It’s a feature of an area gripped by vested interests and cynical politics.
Better to feel it now, and be ready to engage with it again at the crucial moment (like a forthcoming federal election).