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Ken Fabian's avatar

That we have emissions 'reductions' policy that is highly dependent on Offsets seems more like evidence of how comprehensively mainstream politics has sought to evade reducing dependence on fossil fuels. There is so much obviously wrong with Offsetting I find it mind boggling that it has become so widely accepted.

Not sure to what extent proponents have sought options that don't require limiting fossil fuels (or aggressive deployment of RE to the detriment of FF's) and use it to fork 'green' activism, which gets faced with an option to preserve some forests and engage in re-forestation based in carbon offset funding as that or nothing, the illusion that it is strongly supported by climate activists (aka 'greens' - apparently no-one else cares) for the emissions 'reductions'. It reinforces the illusion that it is up to 'greens' (because they care) to fix the problem. Which, in the persistent absence of mainstream leadership has enabled so much of climate and energy politics to be about opposing the 'extremists'.

At best I think such schemes should count against Land Use emissions and more specifically apply to the effects of deforestation, past and present. In order to actually offset FF emissions we need to see persistent, irreversible growth in total vegetation biomass above and beyond forest cover recovery. But that must inevitably top out - and seems to me it is unlikely to top out above the pre-industrial biomass, as far too much land cannot be returned to forests due to the demands for agriculture. And what increases in forest cover we are seeing seem more driven by agriculture getting more efficient - where less land is needed.

But re-forestation tends to happen all on it's own where we stop using the land for agriculture, at least where the land clearing is relatively recent and soil seed stores are still present. Plus weeds will grow there, like it or not. Counting that as 'emissions reductions' that provide permissions to fossil fuels, and worse in Australia's case, as permissions for expanding fossil fuel mining looks like scam, not solution.

Which leads me to think the single biggest impediment to effective climate action is political corruption, with the 'soft' corruption of undue influence that remakes the laws worse than the baksheesh to look the other way sort.

Building an abundance of renewables to displace fossil fuels seems to be the best climate/energy option by far, addressing emission at their source rather than attempting to save fossil fuels and deal with the emissions later, by other means. And I think we only got renewables because mainstream politics gave empty gesture (and enough rope) funding to what 'greens' proposed, in the overwhelming expectation their wind and solar would fail and discredit them. For that misjudgement, thank you. But the ones most deserving of thanks are the scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs who have made RE work, much better than even most 'green' optimists imagined.

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David Hamilton's avatar

Thank you again, Michael. This is indeed an important action, and I wish the plaintiffs every success. If they are successful, there could be ramifications beyond the Climate Active program. The Tasmanian government claims that the whole State has achieved net zero emissions, on the basis that estimated carbon sequestration in the island’s native forests exceeds the real emissions from fossil fuel burning, agriculture, cement production, etc. Several years ago I was sitting across the table from the environmental adviser to the then state minister with responsibility for responding to climate change. The advisor rejoiced in the net zero “achievement” and claimed that Tasmania could happily take no action on climate mitigation for the next two decades while the rest of the world caught up.

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