Why all Australians have a powerful climate vote this election

No matter where you live, you have a vote that matters on climate at this year's federal election.

As Australians begin casting their votes in one of the most consequential federal elections in more than a decade, it’s a critical time to be reminded that every Australian voter has a powerful vote that matters on climate.

The second presidency of Donald Trump looms large over the Australian election - raising fears about the local implications of Trump’s attacks on democracy, the global economy, and the United States’ relationships with its allies.

But with regard to climate, the equation remains steadfastly the same - the crisis is increasingly urgent and existential, and the solutions are well understood and ready to be deployed - if only there were political initiative.

It is a common lament of voters that their individual vote has little bearing on the overall outcome of an election. In historically safe seats this can feel particularly true.

But every Australian voter gets to cast two votes at federal elections – one for the House of Representatives and one for the Senate – and at least one of those could make the difference on whether Australia’s next parliament ramps-up the nation’s climate ambition or extinguishes it.

Your vote matters, especially for the climate

If you live in a marginal electorate, especially an electorate where an independent or Greens candidate stands a good chance – then you obviously have an influential vote to cast on your House of Representatives ballot.

Marginal electorates get a lot of attention from politicians because just a few votes can change the outcome. But as many of the ‘teal’ community independents showed at the 2022 election, even safe seats can become a contest when the community gets behind a better candidate.

And there are plenty of candidates contesting lower-house seats with strong climate policies. There are 35 candidates contesting House of Representatives elections that have received support from Climate 200. The Australian Greens are also contesting every ballot.

But even if you live in a very safe seat or a seat without a viable progressive candidate – your Senate ballot still provides you with an important vote to cast when it comes to climate.

In every state and territory there are marginal Senate races that will decide whether a progressive candidate gets up. Pro-climate action candidates are often in direct competition with conservatives and outright climate change deniers for their Senate spot.

Take Queensland as an example, Queensland Greens Senator Larissa Waters is seeking re-election, as is Labor’s Nita Green – both of whom have been strong voices in support of climate action. They are in a contest with former LNP senator Gerard Rennick and One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts – two outspoken climate change deniers who have spent the last six years in parliament spreading some wild conspiracy theories on climate.

Even if you lived in Australia’s safest seat – Nationals leader David Littleproud holds the Queensland seat of Maranoa with a 72-28 margin – you still have a vote in one of the most consequential Senate contests.

The Australian Greens have candidates up for re-election in every state. Independent Senator David Pocock is contesting the ACT Senate contest, and the Northern Territory Senate election is effectively a three-way contest between Labor’s Malarndirri McCarthy, the Country Liberal Party’s Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and the NT Greens’ Aia Newport. Price told an anti-renewable energy rally last year that she was ‘angered’ by the sight of wind turbines.

While the House of Representatives determines which parties form government, the Senate has equal powers to protect or block legislation, and to push amendments. No major party has commanded a majority in the Senate since the Howard government in 2004 - for more than 20 years the Senate has served as a critical chamber where the passage of legislation requires negotiation and compromise.

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The stakes are very high

Does 2025 count as a “climate election”? Every election since at least 2007 has been a “climate election”. Climate change remains as important an issue as ever.

The rise of Donald Trump in the United States is a major threat to global progress towards ending the climate crisis. Trump has already sought to undermine global efforts to phase-out fossil fuels and block public investment in clean energy projects. The adoption of such policies in Australia would be disastrous.

Peter Dutton is, in effect, the Donald Trump proxy at the 2025 election. There is no escaping the fact that Australia will be much more aligned and sympathetic to the Trump-controlled United States with Dutton as Prime Minister.

Dutton is pledging to pursue a hugely costly, risky and disruptive deployment of nuclear energy – that will work to prop up the fossil fuel industry and delay the deployment of new renewable energy projects. I’ve previously spelled out The 11 ways going nuclear would be a disaster for Australia.

Dutton has also previously said he would oppose Australia’s current 2030 emissions reduction target and has not committed to announcing his own target. He is also running an election campaign that is massively funded by fossil fuel interests. The Coalition’s broader energy policy platform is incoherent and mostly aligned with those fossil fuel interests.

Labor is by no means perfect when it comes to climate policy – its own record on supporting the growth of the fossil fuel industry is poor. But there are several important policies and initiatives at stake. These include Australia’s bid to host the COP31 climate talks – which itself could put pressure on the Australian government to demonstrate greater leadership on climate, and the introduction of mandatory climate risk reporting by corporations.

A positive outcome could be a minority government that requires Labor to negotiate with a crossbench of Greens and community independents that mandates the adoption of stronger climate measures.

As a specific example, under a minority government the Greens and progressive independents could be in a position to demand the introduction of a ‘climate trigger’ into federal environment protection laws, after this year’s election.

They could also continue to push for such amendments if they collectively held the deciding Senate vote.

The Gillard government that formed after the 2010 election serves as the model of how a progressive minority government led to stronger climate measures.

The climate policies negotiated between Gillard, the Greens, and independent MPs Andrew Wilkie, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor, included the carbon price mechanism. It also included the formation of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, the Climate Change Authority and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

Those three organisations still exist today, due in large part to the Greens and Independents that demanded their creation, and the subsequent ability of Labor, Greens and later Independents to use their votes in the Senate to protect those agencies from abolition.

Using your vote to support progressive members of the House of Representatives, if there is one running in your electorate, could help prevent a Dutton government and help push an Albanese government towards stronger climate action.

Likewise, using your vote to support progressive Senators will be critical to the defence of existing climate change policies as well as the passage of good climate legislation.

Either way, no matter where you live, you have a vote that matters on climate.

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